Bayesian Inference

UPDATE: I have corrected an inaccuracy in my probabilistic analysis of the Gemara, and I have added to it an example using concrete numbers. The Mishnah states: האשה שנתארמלה או שנתגרשה היא אומרת בתולה נשאתני והוא אומר לא כי אלא אלמנה נשאתיך אם יש עדים שיצאת בהינומא וראשה פרוע כתובתה מאתים1 The Gemara analyzes: וכיון […]

Balloon Boy and Child Custody Halachah

Balloon Boy The nation’s attention has been lately riveted upon the sad, sordid, bizarre, Warholian saga of Balloon Boy. The LA Legal Examiner reports that Child Protective Services has been contacted: Child Protective Services have been called into the case to determine whether or not the three Heene boys are living in a “safe” environment. […]